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BYD Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: BYD's strategic partnerships and growth in international markets, coupled with lower-than-market helium implied volatility, suggest potential upside opportunities.



Bearish Case: High competition and recent negative press, along with insider selling, pose downside risks that could erode investor confidence and pressure BYD's stock price.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continuing growth driven by strategic expansion (45%)


2. Short-term decline due to competitive pressures (35%)


3. Stability from mixed signals (20%)



Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread: sell $75 calls, buy $77.50 calls—leveraging high implied volatility. Manage risk with favorable 78% Helium odds. Short timeframe (~22 days) capitalizes on expected neutral-to-bearish outlook.


December 27, 2024


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