Bullish Case: Citigroup's ongoing restructuring under CEO Jane Fraser points to potential margin improvement and increased investor confidence. Low valuation and favorable technology expansion could attract new investments.

Bearish Case: Citigroup faces substantial regulatory challenges and operational risks, potentially curbing profitability. High expenses and market uncertainties could hinder growth and increase volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

• 55%: Successful restructuring boosts margins.
• 25%: Regulatory hurdles challenge growth.
• 15%: Market volatility impacts valuation.
• 5%: Major operational setbacks occur.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying C $80 calls and selling C $85 calls expiring in 60 days. Leverage current low implied volatility and potential upward momentum for high reward:risk. This strategy capitalizes on the medium-term outlook with Citigroup's restructuring progress.

February 25, 2025