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C Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Citigroup's ongoing restructuring under CEO Jane Fraser points to potential margin improvement and increased investor confidence. Low valuation and favorable technology expansion could attract new investments.



Bearish Case: Citigroup faces substantial regulatory challenges and operational risks, potentially curbing profitability. High expenses and market uncertainties could hinder growth and increase volatility.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 55%: Successful restructuring boosts margins.
  • 25%: Regulatory hurdles challenge growth.
  • 15%: Market volatility impacts valuation.
  • 5%: Major operational setbacks occur.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying C $80 calls and selling C $85 calls expiring in 60 days. Leverage current low implied volatility and potential upward momentum for high reward:risk. This strategy capitalizes on the medium-term outlook with Citigroup's restructuring progress.


February 25, 2025


Citigroup Forecast

C        Citigroup

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