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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Avis Budget demonstrates resilience with positive performance trends overshadowing legal woes. The increased travel demand may lead to favorable Q4 earnings, driving stock price recovery towards $100.



Bearish Case: Significant legal challenges and ongoing insider trading concerns undermine investor confidence. High implied volatility suggests potential for further downside risk, pressuring stock price towards $75.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Successful management of legal issues restores investor confidence (40%).

2) Ongoing legal troubles lead to further price declines (35%).

3) Positive Q4 earnings propel stock up towards $100 (25%).



Trading Oracle: Focus on a bullish strategy with a long call spread, buying the 100C and selling the 105C expiring in 3 weeks. The recent volatility indicators suggest a potential upside with a 70% probability of profit, aligning with upcoming earnings expectations.


November 19, 2024


Avis Budget Forecast

CAR        Avis Budget

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CAR


CRSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRSR  Corsair Gaming (0.9)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (0.89)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (0.89)


DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (0.86)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CAR


LUV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUV  Southwest Airlines (-0.0)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (0.01)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (-0.01)


NET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NET  Cloudflare (0.01)


RRR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRR  Red Rock Resorts (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CAR


RTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RTX  Raytheon (-0.81)


HEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HEI  Heico (-0.82)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.83)


IDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IDR  Idaho Strategic Resources (-0.84)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (-0.85)







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