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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Avis Budget demonstrates resilience with positive performance trends overshadowing legal woes. The increased travel demand may lead to favorable Q4 earnings, driving stock price recovery towards $100.



Bearish Case: Significant legal challenges and ongoing insider trading concerns undermine investor confidence. High implied volatility suggests potential for further downside risk, pressuring stock price towards $75.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Successful management of legal issues restores investor confidence (40%).

2) Ongoing legal troubles lead to further price declines (35%).

3) Positive Q4 earnings propel stock up towards $100 (25%).



Trading Oracle: Focus on a bullish strategy with a long call spread, buying the 100C and selling the 105C expiring in 3 weeks. The recent volatility indicators suggest a potential upside with a 70% probability of profit, aligning with upcoming earnings expectations.


November 19, 2024


Avis Budget Forecast

CAR        Avis Budget

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CAR


SOYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOYB  Teucrium Soybean (0.91)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (0.91)


VREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VREX  Varex Imaging (0.91)


IPGP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IPGP  IPG Photonics (0.91)


ARRY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARRY  Array (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CAR


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (0.0)


STAA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STAA  Staar Surgical (-0.0)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.0)


SIRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIRI  Sirius XM (-0.01)


PCAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCAR  Paccar (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CAR


UHS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UHS  Universal Health Services (-0.88)


EBAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EBAY  EBay (-0.88)


IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (-0.88)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (-0.89)


HEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HEI  Heico (-0.89)







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