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CFO Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Given the recent price stability around $73.65 and a potential reduced volatility indicated on the implied volatility surface, bullish scenarios favor an upward correction targeting the $75 range, supported by historical return data that shows a likelihood of positive outcomes for longer holding periods.



Bearish Case: Despite price holding near $73.65, elevated implied volatility suggests market uncertainty could induce a downward shift towards $70 or lower. With recent price movement flat and external market pressures, a bearish outlook remains plausible.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. 60%: Continued range-bound trading near $73-$74.
  2. 25%: Upward movement towards $75 driven by reduced volatility.
  3. 15%: Downside risk below $70 due to macroeconomic uncertainties.



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November 29, 2024


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