CMF Forecast




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Expect potential interest rate cuts to stimulate demand for municipal bonds, enhancing CMF's attractiveness as a safe haven, driving prices above $60 due to increased inflow and implied volatility.




Bearish Case: Rising inflation fears and potential institutional selling could pressure CMF prices below $55, as seen in historical return trends indicating stagnation risks and heightened volatility in adverse scenarios.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Rate cuts (30%): Prices up to $60.

2. Inflation fears (25%): Prices down to $55.

3. Demand surge (20%): Stabilization near $58.

4. Institutional selling (15%): Prices below $54.

5. Fed news (10%): Increased volatility around $57.




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November 13, 2024


iShares California Muni Bond Forecast

CMF        iShares California Muni Bond











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