CMTG Forecast


Bullish Case: The CEO's substantial increase in holdings and high dividend payout indicate strong internal confidence and potential for mean reversion to higher valuations. Historical returns indicate periodic recoveries.


Bearish Case: Sustained revenue decline, poor analyst ratings, and insider sales suggest prolonged underperformance. High volatility and negative margins imply significant downside risk.


Potential Outcomes: Mean reversion rally (60%) sustained decline (25%), short-term bounce on earnings (15%). Adjusted based on insider activity and historical return viability.


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June 27, 2024


Claros Mortgage Forecast

CMTG      Claros Mortgage











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CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (0.87)


VLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLY  Valley National Bancorp (0.87)


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (0.87)


VALE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VALE  Vale (0.86)


FIVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FIVN  Five9 (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CMTG



BKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BKE  Buckle (-0.0)


CORT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CORT  Corcept Therapeutics (0.0)


RCKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCKT  Rocket Pharmaceuticals (0.01)


EXEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXEL  Exelixis (0.01)


TDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDS  Telephone And Data Systems (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CMTG



SM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SM  SM Energy (-0.77)


PG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PG  Procter & Gamble (-0.77)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.79)


YCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCS  ProShares UltraShort Yen (-0.82)


BJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BJ  BJ's Wholesale Club (-0.83)





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