Bullish Case: Strong institutional interest combined with elevated implied volatility suggests potential price recovery for CNM, making it attractive for speculative bullish plays in the near term.

Bearish Case: Market uncertainty remains high with recent price declines and bearish option sentiment, indicating potential downside risks for CNM, especially if macroeconomic conditions worsen.

Potential Outcomes:

1. CNM price increases by 15% driven by earnings surprises (40%).

2. Price stabilizes around $42.50 due to institutional support (35%).

3. Further decline to $35 if market fears intensify (25%).

Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish debit spread by buying CNM $45 calls and selling $47.50 calls, leveraging high implied volatility to limit risk. Alternatively, a bearish credit spread shorting $40 puts could capitalize on downside risks while benefiting from inflated premiums. Target near-term trading horizon to capture rapid price movements.

November 17, 2024