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COTY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Continued strong fragrance sales and recent high-volume call options trading signal potential bullish momentum, especially if strategic initiatives gain investor confidence.



Bearish Case: High leverage and persistent legal issues, along with flat historical returns, pose significant downside risks that could limit substantial upward price movements.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Strategic initiatives drive growth and investor interest (40%);

2. High leverage leads to financial constraints (30%);

3. Legal challenges impact valuation (20%);

4. Unexpected macro events heighten volatility (10%).



Trading Oracle: Utilize a bearish long volatility strategy by buying $6 puts and selling $5 puts, expiring in ~55 days. Leverage high volatility and negative price trends with a strong risk-reward profile. Time outlook: 2 months. Strategy aligns with market conditions and elevated volatility.


February 22, 2025


Coty Forecast

COTY        Coty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COTY


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (0.97)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (0.96)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (0.94)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.94)


CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNI  Canadian National Railway (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COTY


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (0.0)


AMPY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMPY  Amplify Energy (-0.01)


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (-0.01)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.02)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COTY


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (-0.93)


AGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGX  Argan (-0.94)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.94)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (-0.94)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (-0.94)







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