Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Coupang's strong e-commerce position, substantial institutional investment, and historical price returns indicate potential upward price movements. Elevated implied volatility suggests market anticipation of significant developments, enhancing bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Market volatility and impending legal challenges pose risks to Coupang's stock price. High implied volatility levels could lead to sharp price corrections, particularly as competitive pressures intensify from rivals like Alibaba.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Price increases due to high investor interest (60%);

2) Continued volatility from competitive pressures (30%);

3) Legal issues or operational challenges undermine stock value (10%).

Trading Oracle: Leverage short-term credit spreads by selling CPNG 11/22 $24.50 calls while buying 11/22 $26.00 calls for a limited risk/reward strategy. Targeting high implied volatility seizes potential profitable movements without significant capital obligation. Ensure to monitor market news closely for volatility spikes.

November 17, 2024