Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The CRT historical price return surface indicates substantial potential gains in the 1-2 year holding range, fueled by mean reversion from current oversold conditions and favorable market stabilization, supporting a bullish outlook.

Bearish Case: Persisting economic instability and negative market sentiment, reflected in the recent price decline to $9.8, suggest potential for further downward pressure, particularly if external macro factors worsen.

Potential Outcomes:

• Short-term bounce (+30%, 40% chance): Driven by technical recovery.
• Continued decline (-20%, 35% chance): Persisting negative sentiment impacts price.
• High volatility, no clear trend (20% chance): Economic uncertainty persists.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating bullish debit spreads with centering strikes around $12-$14, expiring in 3-6 months. Use $10 puts for risk mitigation. This strategy capitalizes on implied volatility while hedging downside risk, ensuring a high probability-of-profit with a favorable reward:risk ratio.

November 17, 2024