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CRT Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: CRT's historical likelihood favors strong gains in 1-2 year hold periods when recovery begins, coupled with current oversold levels pointing to potential bounce.



Bearish Case: Economic instability remains a significant threat, with prolonged flat trading suggesting potential downside, aligning with recent bearish predictions.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% rally (35% chance): Technical recovery in next year.

2) 25% decline (40% chance): Due to market instability.

3) Volatility without net movement (25% chance): Unclear economic direction.



Trading Oracle: Enter bullish debit spreads targeting $11 and $13 strikes, expiring in 3-6 months, reflecting potential rebound. Hedge with $9 puts. Favorable reward:risk profile with positive edge, leveraging high volatility.


February 16, 2025


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