CSWC Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: CSWC's historical return surface indicates likely positive returns over longer holding periods, suggesting undervaluation amid promising sector investments. Stable dividends enhance attractiveness amid low macro tailwinds.




Bearish Case: Predominantly high put volume and mean-reverting price signals potential downside pressure. Elevated implied volatility (63.5%) in long-term puts highlights market concerns, reflecting macroeconomic threats.




Potential Outcomes:
1. Smooth recovery (35%): Driven by stable dividends and mean reversion.

2. Mild downturn (50%): Macro uncertainty persists with hesitant market sentiment.

3. Severe drop (15%): Economic headwinds sap performance.




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January 24, 2025


Capital Southwest Forecast

CSWC        Capital Southwest











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CSWC



TNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNK  Teekay Tankers (0.84)


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (0.81)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (0.81)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (0.8)


XYL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XYL  Xylem (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CSWC



ED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ED  Consolidated Edison (0.01)


HPQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HPQ  HP (-0.01)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (-0.01)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.02)


HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CSWC



VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.73)


CLPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLPT  ClearPoint Neuro (-0.74)


ADP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADP  Automatic Data Processing (-0.75)


WH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WH  Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (-0.76)


NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (-0.76)









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