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CSWC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CSWC's historical return surface indicates likely positive returns over longer holding periods, suggesting undervaluation amid promising sector investments. Stable dividends enhance attractiveness amid low macro tailwinds.

Bearish Case: Predominantly high put volume and mean-reverting price signals potential downside pressure. Elevated implied volatility (63.5%) in long-term puts highlights market concerns, reflecting macroeconomic threats.

Potential Outcomes: 1. Smooth recovery (35%): Driven by stable dividends and mean reversion.

2. Mild downturn (50%): Macro uncertainty persists with hesitant market sentiment.

3. Severe drop (15%): Economic headwinds sap performance.

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January 24, 2025

Capital Southwest Forecast

CSWC Capital Southwest

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