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CVE Forecast


Bullish Case: Increasing volatility in CVE implied forecasts indicates potential upward price movements as oil prices stabilize. Optimistic demand forecasts may lead to a bullish reversal as investor sentiment improves.



Bearish Case: Stagnant historical returns and low trading volumes suggest an ongoing bearish outlook. Any geopolitical tensions or economic downturns could amplify concerns, suppressing CVE's price further.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of stable oil prices boosting covers;

2. 30% likelihood of ongoing underperformance relative to peers;

3. 30% risk of external events catalyzing price declines.



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November 12, 2024


Cenovus Energy Forecast

CVE        Cenovus Energy

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CVE


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.9)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.85)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.85)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (0.85)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CVE


HRB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRB  H&R Block (-0.0)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.01)


ARR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARR  ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.01)


NTLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTLA  Intellia Therapeutics (-0.01)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CVE


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCD  McDonald's (-0.73)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (-0.75)


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (-0.79)


GILD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GILD  Gilead Sciences (-0.8)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (-0.84)







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