DBC Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: DBC's exposure to diverse commodities and potential inflation hedging spark optimism. Recent call option volume suggests positive sentiment.




Bearish Case: Rising economic uncertainty and slowing global demand pose risks to commodity prices, underpinning a cautious outlook for DBC.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 25% Bullish: Inflation spikes drive commodity demand.
  • 40% Flat: Mixed indicators sustain current price levels.
  • 35% Bearish: Economic downturn lessens commodity needs.




Trading Oracle: Implement a call debit spread with $22/$23 strike expiring in 25 days to capitalize on bullish sentiment. Positive edge, yet monitor economic data closely.



January 28, 2025


Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Forecast

DBC        Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DBC



HES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HES  Hess (0.85)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.84)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.83)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (0.82)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DBC



AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.0)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (0.01)


VNDA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNDA  Vanda Pharmaceuticals (0.01)


CRESY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRESY  Cresud (-0.01)


BLBD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLBD  Blue Bird (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DBC



SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (-0.76)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.76)


BNED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNED  Barnes & Noble Education (-0.77)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (-0.79)


INFY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INFY  Infosys (-0.81)









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