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DEO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strength in premium brands, growth in emerging markets, and rising Guinness demand could drive DEO's performance. Stable implied volatility supports this view.

Bearish Case: Supply chain challenges, legal issues, and shifting consumer preferences toward cheaper alternatives pose risks to DEO's growth outlook.

Potential Outcomes: Guinness demand growth (60%)
Sustainability initiatives enhance brand (55%)
Legal issues persist, hurting image (30%)

Trading Oracle: Utilize bullish debit spreads: buy DEO $130 calls, sell $135 calls, expiring in 3 months. This strategy leverages stable volatility and positive brand momentum, targeting an upside from increasing Guinness popularity and emerging market expansion. Potential high reward with controlled risk.

January 21, 2025

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DEO Diageo

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DEO

ABEV Ambev (0.89)

CNI Canadian National Railway (0.86)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (0.86)

XRX Xerox (0.85)

BRKR Bruker (0.85)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DEO

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.01)

OTIS Otis Worldwide (-0.01)

VTRS Viatris (0.01)

CRC California Resources (-0.01)

TMDX Transmedics (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DEO

PPC Pilgrim's Pride (-0.79)

LRN Stride (-0.8)

CRS Carpenter Technology (-0.8)

AGX Argan (-0.8)

AX Axos Financial (-0.8)

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