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DHI Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: DHI has strong housing demand and institutional backing. Its implied volatility shows contango, suggesting near-term upward momentum. HeliumHelium



Bearish Case: DHI faces risks from rising mortgage rates and potential market saturation. The implied volatility surface indicates elevated uncertainty. HeliumHelium



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued housing demand boosts DHI (60%).

2. Rising rates hurt demand (30%).

3. Legal issues arise (5%).



Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish call debit spread by buying near month ITM calls and selling OTM calls. The implied volatility is in contango, offering a solid reward:risk opportunity. Target a 2-month horizon.


January 07, 2025


D.R. Horton Forecast

DHI        D.R. Horton

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DHI


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.95)


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.93)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.9)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.8)


VRNS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNS  Varonis Systems (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DHI


DKS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKS  Dicks Sporting Goods (-0.0)


APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (-0.0)


CRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRC  California Resources (-0.0)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (0.01)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DHI


SONY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SONY  Sony Group Corporation (-0.65)


ANET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANET  Arista Networks (-0.7)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.72)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.72)


TSLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSLX  Sixth Street Specialty Lending (-0.76)







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