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DHI Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: DHI’s strong demand persists amidst supply constraints and favorable demographics. The market sentiment is slightly bullish with implied volatility in a stable downtrend, suggesting potential for upward price movement. The return surface suggests resilience in historical returns when held over a year.



Bearish Case: Rising mortgage rates may further suppress housing demand, evidenced by high current volatility. The term structure reflects uncertainty around earnings and broader economic conditions impacting DHI's near-term performance.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 70% probability: Continued strong housing demand drives price up.

2. 20% probability: Economic slowdown hampers demand.

3. 10% probability: Severe regulatory challenges arise, hindering growth potential.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish long call spread by buying $170.00 calls and selling $175.00 calls expiring shortly, harnessing the current bullish sentiment and decreasing volatility to maximize delta exposure with manageable risk. This has a high probability-of-profit rate due to low current market volatility.


November 08, 2024


D.R. Horton Forecast

DHI        D.R. Horton

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Assets that tend to move strongly with DHI


NAIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NAIL  Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (0.93)


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.91)


SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (0.89)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.87)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DHI


FUBO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUBO  fuboTV (-0.0)


GIII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIII  G-III Apparel (0.0)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (0.0)


WMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMS  Advanced Drainage Systems (0.0)


SFIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SFIX  Stitch Fix (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DHI


SOYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOYB  Teucrium Soybean (-0.66)


CRSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRSR  Corsair Gaming (-0.66)


CAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAR  Avis Budget (-0.67)


OCSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OCSL  Oaktree Specialty Lending (-0.68)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.76)







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