Bullish Case: DHI’s previous quarter shows a revenue jump of 8.96% with the company managing to beat analyst estimates [Market Watch, saltwire.com]. The firm has stepped up incentives to boost sales [saltwire.com].


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Bearish Case: Despite previous growth, recent quarters show increasing mortgage rates impacting house buying plans and weakening overall demand; with an expected decline in home sales projected for the next quarter [saltwire.com].


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Takeaway: Market uncertainty has been accompanied by a rise in mortgage rates, which has impacted DHI's projected sales. However, it has tailored its strategies to deal with this and is leveraging incentivisation tactics to maintain sales [saltwire.com, Market Watch].


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Potential Outcomes:

1. Housing demand remains strong (65% probability) due to the lack of affordable supply and the firm’s incentivisation schemes [Market Watch, Helium].

2. Housing demand decreases (35% probability), as high mortgage rates temper demand, which could also impact DHI’s growth and sales numbers [saltwire.com, benzinga.com].


November 24, 2023


D.R. Horton Forecast

[DHI]  D.R. Horton
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)



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