DHI Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong historical returns, AI price forecast is bullish (+0.57%), and bullish risk is 72% higher than bearish. Recent institutional investments suggest confidence.


Bearish Case: Insider selling continues, mortgage rate hikes potentially impact demand, and analyst downgrades signal caution, especially in key markets like Florida.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong housing demand continues (65%).

2. Rising mortgage rates reduce demand (30%).

3. Legal/quality issues arise (5%). Market develops, driving more narratives.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish long vertical debit spread. Buy $180 strike call options and sell $185 strike call options expiring in ~4 days. Utilize undervalued implied volatility for a high reward:risk setup with significant positive edge.


July 23, 2024


D.R. Horton Forecast

DHI      D.R. Horton











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DHI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.69)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.42)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DHI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.18)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.42)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.42)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.69)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DHI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.69)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.42)





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