DIV Forecast


Bullish Case: DIV's current price is 3.7% higher YoY. The options implied volatility surface indicates lower volatility for near-term at-the-money strikes, suggesting stability and potential upward price movement.


Bearish Case: Helium's AI price forecast is neutral to slightly negative (-0.05%), with higher forecasted volatility relative to market volatility. Recent price action and historical returns show more likelihood for downsides.


Potential Outcomes:

1. DIV price appreciates to ~$18.00 (55%) due to potential stability.

2. DIV price remains flat (~20%).

3. DIV drops below $16.00 (~25%) due to economic uncertainties and elevated implied volatility.


Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a credit spread strategy with a bearish bias. Use bear call spreads, selling high IV options and buying them back cheaper later. Target the $18 strike price, looking at a time horizon of up to 90 days to capitalize on the elevated implied volatility and neutral-to-bearish outlook, maximizing reward-to-risk ratio.


June 26, 2024


Global X Funds - Global X SuperDividend U.S. Forecast

DIV      Global X Funds - Global X SuperDividend U.S.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DIV



SPYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYD  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend (0.9)


DVY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVY  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Select Dividend (0.9)


MS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MS  Morgan Stanley (0.9)


LNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNC  Lincoln National (0.88)


CFG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CFG  Citizens Financial (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DIV



LSCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LSCC  Lattice Semiconductor (-0.0)


OPCH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPCH  Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (-0.0)


TEAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEAM  Atlassian (-0.0)


MQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MQ  Marqeta (0.0)


RRGB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRGB  Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DIV



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.74)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.74)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.81)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.82)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.83)





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