DMAC Forecast


Bullish Case: The bullish case hinges on positive DM199 trial results, potentially targeting a multibillion-dollar market for acute ischemic stroke treatment, with anticipated interim analysis in early 2025 driving investment interest.


Bearish Case: The bearish outlook is based on mean-reverting historical price action, high implied volatility in options indicating uncertainty, and potential market saturation if DM199 fails to outperform existing treatments.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Clinical trial success for DM199 (40%);

2. Market volatility increase (20%);

3. Regulatory delays (15%);

4. Insider activity (15%);

5. Broader economic impact (10%). Estimated probabilities reflect trends in investor sentiment and market behavior.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish position via a DMAC 08/16/2024 5.00 Call, leveraging implied volatility. With DMAC at $3.65, a debit spread can minimize risk while maximizing upside potential before upcoming trial results. Focus on a high-reward, high-probability strategy.


July 25, 2024


DiaMedica Therapeutics Forecast

DMAC      DiaMedica Therapeutics











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DMAC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.12)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.1)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.08)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DMAC



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.08)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.1)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.12)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.24)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DMAC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.12)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.1)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.08)





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