AI DVAX Forecast


Bullish Case: DVAX's strong vaccine pipeline, particularly HEPLISAV-B, enhances investor confidence, supported by recent volume surges in call options. Market volatility adjustments suggest potential upward price movements toward the end of Q4 2024.


Bearish Case: Continued insider selling combined with unfulfilled market expectations may erode investor sentiment, risking further price declines in Q4 2024, especially amidst elevated implied volatility levels and historical returns hovering at low percentiles.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of price recovery driven by HEPLISAV-B market strength.

2. 40% risk of price decline due to ongoing insider selling.

3. 20% chance of volatility causing erratic price movements.

4. 10% chance of significant upside from partnerships or new trials.


Trading Oracle: Consider utilizing a bullish debit spread with $10.00 C and $11.00 C options due to high implied volatility and recent call volume trends, targeting short-term price stabilization. Monitor market news for further price volatility opportunities.


September 04, 2024


Dynavax Forecast

DVAX      Dynavax











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MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.91)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (0.9)


SEDG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEDG  Solaredge (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DVAX



KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.0)


BG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BG  Bunge (-0.0)


SLAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLAB  Silicon Laboratories (0.0)


GIII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIII  G-III Apparel (0.0)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DVAX



MSI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MSI  Motorola (-0.91)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (-0.91)


ACIW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACIW  ACI Worldwide (-0.91)


RSG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RSG  Republic Services (-0.92)


GDDY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDDY  Godaddy (-0.92)





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