Bullish Case: Dexcom's CGM technology continues to gain traction, with regulatory approvals boosting market penetration. Ongoing innovations can drive revenue growth, reinforced by a solid patient base and strategic partnerships in place.

Bearish Case: Intensifying competition from obesity drugs and potential insider selling trends may adversely impact Dexcom's market share and overall stock performance, raising concerns around future growth and profitability.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 55% chance of increased adoption following FDA approvals.

2. 30% likelihood of adverse impact from competing obesity drugs.

3. 15% risk due to insider selling affecting investor confidence.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by purchasing the $75 call and selling the $76 call. This strategy leverages the current implied volatility and potential price recovery while minimizing risk. With positive edge and a potential return of 35%, this aligns well with the recent bullish sentiment.

November 15, 2024