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EAST Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Potential easing of geopolitical tensions, supported by China’s influence, could drive short-term gains. Recent price surge suggests momentum that might attract investors.

Bearish Case: Ongoing instability in the Middle East and consumer sentiment against alcohol may suppress sales. Historical data indicates low likelihood of significant long-term gains.

Potential Outcomes: Geopolitical stability catalyzes 30% price increase (20%). Conflicts depress sales resulting in a 20% drop (40%). Price remains stable with minor fluctuations (40%).

Trading Oracle: Implement a credit spread strategy during the expected volatility. Sell $0.80 puts and buy $0.70 puts, capitalizing on stability or slight decreases within 3 months. This approach offers high reward:risk with significant alpha.

January 01, 2025

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