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EC Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: EC's price shows a strong mean reversion tendency and potential for rebound due to undervaluation, evidenced by a 33% increase over 90 days and rising call option volume indicating investor optimism.



Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions, environmental concerns, and regulatory hurdles could pressure EC's price downwards, coupled with high implied volatility and put option activity, suggesting market uncertainty.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Market downturn (50% - -15%).

2. Positive earnings (30% - +15%).

3. Regulatory breakthroughs (20% - +10%).

4. Geopolitical easing (10% - +12%).



Trading Oracle:

A Bearish Long Volatility strategy is optimal due to EC's high implied volatility and geopolitical risk. Positioning with OOTM put options captures potential downturn and profit from volatility spikes, factoring in a probable negative drift.


March 30, 2025


Ecopetrol SA Forecast

EC        Ecopetrol SA

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PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.8)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.77)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (0.75)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EC


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.0)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.01)


LYFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYFT  Lyft (0.02)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.03)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EC


MTB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTB  M & T (-0.85)


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (-0.86)


NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (-0.88)


QTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QTWO  Q2 (-0.89)


MSI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MSI  Motorola (-0.9)







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