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EC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: A recent 20% rise signals a bullish turnaround. Stronger call volume over puts indicates optimism. Short-term mean reversion potential is supported by historical patterns.

Bearish Case: EC's prolonged decline and persistent negative sentiment reflect structural issues. High implied volatility and put option activity suggest expectation of further downside.

Potential Outcomes: Continued market downturn (45%)—further 15% decrease;
Regulatory resolution (25%)—10% increase;
Oil price surge (15%)—12% increase.

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June 20, 2025

Ecopetrol SA Forecast

EC Ecopetrol SA

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EC

TTE TotalEnergies SE (0.88)

TMDX Transmedics (0.83)

VSAT Viasat (0.81)

KLAC KLA (0.75)

AMGN AMGEN (0.74)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EC

ESTC Elastic (-0.0)

EXAS Exact Sciences (0.0)

ABNB Airbnb (0.01)

IRM Iron Mountain (0.01)

BAND Bandwidth (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EC

RJF Raymond James Financial (-0.73)

YPF YPF (-0.73)

CRESY Cresud (-0.74)

UAL United Airlines (-0.75)

PTON Peloton Interactive (-0.78)

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