ECNS Forecast


Bullish Case: ECNS could benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions in China and increased international investment. Lower implied volatility for calls suggests a less risky environment for bullish strategies.


Bearish Case: ECNS has shown negative historical return trends and current implied volatilities indicate high uncertainty. The trading volume data shows limited optimism despite recent activity.


Potential Outcomes: Most likely outcome is continued moderate volatility with 75% probability. Potential upside of 20% return has a 15% probability based on past performance. Downside risk remains high at 45%, given economic uncertainties.


Trading Oracle: Implement a credit spread strategy with short-term puts on ECNS, taking advantage of high implied volatility and mean-reverting price action. Position for potential moderate rebound or stabilization, likely within a 45-60 day outlook. This maximizes risk/reward with high probability of profit.


June 30, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI China Small-Cap Forecast

ECNS      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI China Small-Cap











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ECNS



EWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Hong Kong (0.9)


ASHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASHR  Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares (0.88)


CWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWEB  Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bu (0.87)


NTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTR  Nutrien (0.86)


GOGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOGO  Gogo (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ECNS



HIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIVE  HIVE Blockchain (-0.0)


SMTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMTC  Semtech (0.0)


CME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CME  CME (0.0)


RXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RXT  Rackspace Technology (0.0)


XLU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLU  Utilities Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ECNS



SUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUN  Sunoco (-0.81)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (-0.81)


X Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   X  United States Steel (-0.83)


CHKP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHKP  Check Point Software Technolgies (-0.85)


AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (-0.87)





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