Bullish Case: China policy support and September stimulus could spark mean reversion from deep discount; Helium's odds show positive-density bands around $31-33 for medium horizons. If October's trade data and IV compress from backwardation, a recovery toward $30-32 is plausible within 6-12 months.

Bearish Case: Backwardated IV and steep put skew signal concentrated tail risk; zero-volume thin liquidity amplifies shocks. A regulatory or geopolitical jolt could trigger sharp outflows toward $24-26 as bids evaporate, especially with Helium's density still heavy at $27-29.

Potential Outcomes:

• Range trade $25.5-$29.5 through Q4 — 35%: backwardation persists; falsify if IV term structure steepens upward.
• Drop to $23-25 — 25%: liquidity/regulatory shock; falsify if price reclaims $28.5 and put IV compresses.
• Recovery to $31-34 — 20%: policy catalysts; falsify if price stalls below $28.5 by December.
• Flat drift ±3% — 20%: muted flows continue.

September 26, 2026