ED Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Recent positive earnings and strong KPI improvements suggest a potential upside. Steady dividend history, low P/B ratio (1.6), and bullish AI sentiment (38% more bullish risk).


Bearish Case: High downside risk persists due to operational underperformance, neutral price forecast, and relatively flat implied volatility term structure. Historical price return shows negative tendencies.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued market gains: 30%, supported by stable fundamentals and bullish sentiment.

2. Downside risk materializes: 40%, indicated by the mean-reverting price action and high downside risk in volatility surface.

3. Sideways movement: 30%, highlighted by neutral to flat term structure and balanced forces.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bearish long volatility spread, expiring in 38 days. Buy 1 $90 put (delta: -0.53) and sell 1 $87.5 put (delta: -0.36). Expected edge: -23, high return-to-risk ratio (1:1.2). Leverage high downside risk and low historical returns for profitable alpha.


July 10, 2024


Consolidated Edison Forecast

ED      Consolidated Edison











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ED



PCG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCG  PG&E (0.8)


SRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRE  Sempra Energy (0.76)


CNP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNP  Centerpoint Energy (0.74)


XLU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLU  Utilities Select Sector SPDR (0.73)


D Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   D  Dominion Energy (0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ED



PATH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PATH  UiPath (0.0)


AI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AI  C3.ai (-0.0)


HXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HXL  Hexcel (0.0)


SLAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLAB  Silicon Laboratories (0.0)


VAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAC  Marriott Vacations Worldwide (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ED



XPEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XPEL  Reg S (-0.38)


CSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CSCO  Cisco Systems (-0.39)


KNSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KNSL  Kinsale (-0.4)


CPRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPRI  Capri (-0.41)


FLYW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLYW  Flywire (-0.42)





Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with ED


 Ask any question about ED!