EELV Forecast


Bullish Case: Given historical mean reversion, an 1.6% one-week gain trend, and low current implied volatility, EELV could bounce back despite broader emerging markets lagging.


Bearish Case: Fiscal instability in key markets, coupled with neutral AI forecasts and significant past underperformance, indicates downside risk is prevalent.


Potential Outcomes: Main scenarios: Slow growth recovery (40%), deepened fiscal instability (30%), steady mean reversion (30%). Likelihoods built off recent investor actions and historical volatility return surface.


Trading Oracle: Credit spreads on EELV, specifically out-of-money puts (like the July 19, 20.00 P), capitalize on low volatility. Target 30-45 days till expiration focusing on mean reversion strategy, leveraging consistent historical patterns.


July 04, 2024


Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P Emerging Markets Low Volatility Forecast

EELV      Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P Emerging Markets Low Volatility











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EELV



EWY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWY  iShares MSCI South Korea (0.9)


URTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URTY  ProShares UltraPro Russell2000 (0.88)


UWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWM  ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (0.87)


VWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VWO  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (0.83)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EELV



ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.0)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.0)


MLCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLCO  Melco Resorts & Entertainment (-0.0)


NOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOC  Northrop Grumman (0.0)


U Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   U  Unity Software (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EELV



SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.7)


DOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOG  ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.7)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.71)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.72)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)





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