EFA Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: With EFA's significant 51.8% five-year rise, declining volatility suggests market stability. Global economic recovery boosts consumer and industrial sectors, enhancing upside potential.




Bearish Case: EFA faces potential downturn due to geopolitical tensions and elevated put volume, indicating market concerns. Implied volatility backwardation suggests ongoing uncertainty and risk of decline.




Potential Outcomes:
1. 50% chance EFA stabilizes near $86, supported by low volatility.
2. 30% chance of decline to $80 amid geopolitical risks.
3. 15% chance for recovery above $90 with positive earnings.
4. 5% chance of sharp drop below $75.



May 07, 2025


BTC iShares MSCI EAFE Forecast

EFA        BTC iShares MSCI EAFE











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EFA



FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.91)


SAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAN  Banco Santander (0.68)


SNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNY  Sanofi (0.66)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.65)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EFA



COF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COF  Capital One Financial (0.0)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (-0.0)


VST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VST  Vistra (0.0)


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (-0.0)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   W  Wayfair (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EFA



FUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUN  Cedar Fair (-0.43)


CCCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCCS  CCC Intelligent (-0.44)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (-0.49)


RPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RPD  Rapid7 (-0.49)


FLYW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLYW  Flywire (-0.56)









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