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EFA Forecast

Bullish Case: EFA's 55.8% rise over five years and a decline in implied volatility indicate resilience. Increased call option volume (63% more cross-tenors) suggests bullish sentiment, anticipating economic recovery in developed markets.

Bearish Case: EFA's recent price dip and backwardation in implied volatility signal potential downturn. Market concerns due to geopolitical tensions and economic instability could pressure prices, supported by historical decline patterns.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance the price stabilizes around $82.

2. 25% chance of a decline to $78 due to international tensions.

3. 15% potential rally above $85 with positive earnings surprises.

4. 10% chance of a sharp drop below $75 triggered by crises.

March 12, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EFA

VXUS Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total International Stock (0.89)

TRI Thomson-Reuters (0.69)

SAN Banco Santander (0.63)

TWO Two Harbors Investment (0.62)

XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.59)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EFA

CRS Carpenter Technology (0.0)

CWH Camping World (0.0)

GLW Corning (0.0)

KNTK Kinetik (-0.0)

V Visa (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EFA

ILMN Illumina (-0.36)

WST West Pharmaceutical Services (-0.38)

RIOT Riot Blockchain (-0.4)

CRC California Resources (-0.4)

NWL Newell Brands (-0.42)

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