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EFAS Forecast

Bullish Case: A potential bullish case arises from high historical returns observed for EFAS over longer holding periods, suggesting favorable long-term growth possibilities. Additionally, implied volatilities indicate market skepticism, which may create opportunities for recovery as market sentiment shifts positively.

Bearish Case: The bearish case hinges on current flat trading patterns coupled with high implied volatility, suggesting continued investor uncertainty. Economic headwinds could exacerbate downside risks, leading to pressure on EFAS prices in the near term.

Potential Outcomes:

1. (30%) Moderate recovery to $16 based on improving economic conditions.

2. (50%) Continued flat price action around $14 due to persistent market uncertainty.

3. (20%) Significant decline below $13 driven by macroeconomic pressures and low investor confidence.

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November 19, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EFAS

EFA BTC iShares MSCI EAFE (0.9)

EWG BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Germany (0.88)

IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties (0.87)

EIX Edison International (0.86)

FE Firstenergy (0.85)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EFAS

SGRY Surgery (-0.0)

UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.0)

AKBA Akebia Therapeutics (-0.0)

OLPX Olaplex (0.01)

RRR Red Rock Resorts (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EFAS

EWCZ European Wax Center (-0.71)

LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.71)

YANG Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (-0.72)

DV DoubleVerify (-0.74)

FRSH Freshworks (-0.75)

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