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EMBD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Solid emerging market yields and potential recovery in Asia and Latin America could drive EMBD higher. The mean-reverting nature of returns supports potential price rebounds.

Bearish Case: Political instability, currency risks in emerging markets, and current high volatility levels could pressure EMBD. Historical underperformance during global crises adds concern.

Potential Outcomes: Price stability amid volatility: 60%.
Moderate downturn due to political unrest: 25%.
Unexpected market recovery drives growth: 15%.

Trading Oracle: Utilizing short-dated credit spreads is ideal given high implied volatilities and mean-reverting price action. Bearish short call spreads near 24 strikes, expiring in March 2025, provide favorable risk profiles and high probability of profit.

January 29, 2025

Global X Emerging Markets Bond Forecast

EMBD Global X Emerging Markets Bond

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EMBD

IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.69)

UDOW ProShares UltraPro Dow30 (0.67)

DFEN Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.66)

LTH Life Time (0.66)

SBUX Starbucks (0.65)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EMBD

NOMD Nomad Foods (-0.0)

RIOT Riot Blockchain (0.0)

SKYT SkyWater Technology (-0.0)

ILMN Illumina (0.0)

LEN Lennar (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EMBD

AVNW Aviat Networks (-0.48)

WFRD Weatherford International plc - New (-0.49)

ATKR Atkore (-0.51)

SHLS Shoals (-0.52)

AMN AMN Healthcare Services (-0.53)

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