EPS Forecast


Bullish Case: The historical price return surface shows a pattern of positive returns for holding periods up to 2 years, complemented by relatively stable implied volatility from the options market. Coupled with strong economic fundamentals, this suggests a favorable environment for EPS growth.


Bearish Case: The Helium Uncertainty - Market Uncertainty surface highlights heightened helium uncertainty for lower strike prices, reflecting potential macroeconomic risks. Combined with minimal short-term price appreciation, the downside risk is significant.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Mild bullish continuation: 35% chance, supported by historical data and economic outlook.

2. Flat price movement reflecting current trends: 40% chance.

3. Corrections due to volatility: 25% chance, as signaled by higher implied volatility at lower strikes.


Trading Oracle: Execute long debit spreads expiring in 2 months at $57. Expected steady price with controlled volatility offers high reward:risk. Optimal strategy is Helium Long Volatility based on favorable implied volatility and historical return patterns. Look for mild bullish trend continuation.


July 23, 2024


WisdomTree U.S. LargeCap Forecast

EPS      WisdomTree U.S. LargeCap











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EPS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.44)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EPS



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.44)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EPS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.44)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)





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