ESTC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong revenue growth driven by AI and search technology adoption. Positive sentiment around recent innovations and partnerships boosting investor confidence.


Bearish Case: High competition and insider sales may indicate caution. Elevated implied volatility suggests potential downward market movements.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased AI tech adoption (60%) drives growth.

2. Competitive pressures and market correction (30%).

3. Market stability (10%).


Trading Oracle: Utilize a bearish short volatility strategy due to high vols. Execute a call debit spread: buy $125C, sell $115C expiring in 29 days. 81% profit odds, aligns with market sentiment and implied vol data.


July 19, 2024


Elastic Forecast

ESTC      Elastic











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Assets that tend to move strongly with ESTC



PANW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PANW  Palo Alto Networks (0.91)


BUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUG  Global X Cybersecurity (0.83)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (0.82)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.82)


AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ESTC



AMBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMBA  Ambarella (0.0)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.0)


SFIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SFIX  Stitch Fix (-0.0)


DHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DHR  Danaher (-0.0)


LSPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LSPD  Lightspeed Commerce Inc (Sub Voting) (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ESTC



PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.79)


DQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DQ  Daqo New Energy (-0.81)


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (-0.83)


ASHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASHR  Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares (-0.83)


CHAU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHAU  Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (-0.84)





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