ETSY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Etsy's strong community and focus on niche markets, combined with potential growth from AI initiatives, position it well for long-term stability despite current challenges.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and competitive pressures, along with potential regulatory hurdles, indicate risks leading to further declines. Recent controversies compound these challenges.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Global expansion boosts market share: 60%
  • Continued competitive challenges reduce growth: 30%
  • Reputational impacts from controversies: 10%




Trading Oracle:

Strategy: Bearish Short Volatility. The flat term structure and high implied volatility, especially short-term, suggest exploiting premium decay. Selling $46.5 strike call options and buying more OOTM calls optimizes for controlled risk and potential short-term profit.



March 23, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ETSY



AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.87)


SYNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYNA  Synaptics (0.84)


INDI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INDI  Indie Semiconductor (0.82)


ATKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATKR  Atkore (0.81)


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ETSY



BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (-0.0)


HUBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUBS  HubSpot (-0.01)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (-0.01)


AAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAL  American Airlines (-0.02)


ATRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATRO  Astronics (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ETSY



SMMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMMT  Summit Therapeutics (-0.78)


TW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TW  Tradeweb Markets (-0.79)


DTE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DTE  DTE Energy (-0.79)


NOK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOK  Nokia (-0.79)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.84)









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