EVC Forecast


Bullish Case: EVC's recent price action shows mean reversion with a notable +17.2% in the past week. Coupled with lower implied volatility and Entravision's sale of its digital advertising business, there is potential for further growth [seekingalpha.com][Helium][Helium].


Bearish Case: With EVC trading at -53.5% from a year ago and significant price drops over the past two years, coupled with -2% lower implied volatility forecast, there is skepticism about a sustained rally [Helium][Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion continues (+60%) [Helium],

2. Market stabilizes post-business sale (+30%) [seekingalpha.com],

3. Macroeconomic downturn impacts price (-10%) [Nature],

4. Volatility fails to dampen (-50%) [Helium][Helium].


Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit spread strategy on EVC targeting +$2.5 strike calls expiring in August 2024 due to lower implied volatility and historical mean reversion. Profit from a short-term uptrend, anticipating further positive movement next month (high reward:risk).


July 17, 2024


Entravision Communications Corp. - Forecast

EVC      Entravision Communications Corp. -











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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EVC



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.52)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.57)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.69)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.76)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EVC



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.69)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.52)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.57)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.76)





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