Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The high implied volatility (up to 191.4%) suggests strong bullish sentiment, especially if positive earnings results follow. Historical patterns show potential for significant price recoveries with key options heavily favoring calls, indicating optimism in the near term.

Bearish Case: Recent price declines (24.5% from 90 days ago) alongside high market uncertainty (market implied volatility at 62.4%) and insider selling signals caution. The bearish sentiment could lead to further price corrections following upcoming earnings announcements.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings report driving a 30% probability of price increase;

2. Continued insider selling with a 25% chance of a 15% price decline;

3. Increased market volatility leading to sharp corrections, estimated at 40%.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish long volatility strategy with a debit spread on $17.5 calls sold against $20 calls, expiring soon, given the high call volume and volatility edge. Aim for a 201% return with a short-term outlook focusing on upcoming earnings.

October 22, 2024