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EVH Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Potential for a turnaround as implied volatility stabilizes at 60.38% despite bearish sentiment, suggesting that oversold conditions may lead to a recovery in EVH's share price.



Bearish Case: Persistently high volatility combined with institutional sell-offs could exacerbate stock declines, indicating continued negative sentiment surrounding EVH performance in the healthcare sector.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong earnings report boosts price by 30% (40% chance).

2. Continued institutional sell-off leads to further declines (30% chance).

3. Market stabilization and gradual recovery (30% chance).



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread by buying the $12.5 call and selling the $15 call, capitalizing on high implied volatility with upcoming earnings. This trade offers a high reward-to-risk ratio, aiming for a 200% return by expiration in late January.


November 15, 2024


Evolent Health Forecast

EVH        Evolent Health

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EVH


BAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAX  Baxter International (0.85)


ACHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACHC  Acadia Healthcare (0.83)


OPCH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPCH  Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (0.83)


GPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPN  Global Payments (0.81)


PII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PII  Polaris (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EVH


NTNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTNX  Nutanix (0.0)


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (0.0)


ABBV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABBV  Abbvie (0.0)


ARQT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARQT  Arcutis Biotherapeutics (0.0)


GRWG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRWG  GrowGeneration (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EVH


BJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BJ  BJ's Wholesale Club (-0.71)


TME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TME  Tencent Music Entertainment Group - (-0.71)


DAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAC  Danaos (-0.73)


GOOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOG  Alphabet (-0.79)


GOOGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOGL  Alphabet (-0.79)







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