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EVH Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Potential for a turnaround as implied volatility stabilizes at 60.38% despite bearish sentiment, suggesting that oversold conditions may lead to a recovery in EVH's share price.



Bearish Case: Persistently high volatility combined with institutional sell-offs could exacerbate stock declines, indicating continued negative sentiment surrounding EVH performance in the healthcare sector.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong earnings report boosts price by 30% (40% chance).

2. Continued institutional sell-off leads to further declines (30% chance).

3. Market stabilization and gradual recovery (30% chance).



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread by buying the $12.5 call and selling the $15 call, capitalizing on high implied volatility with upcoming earnings. This trade offers a high reward-to-risk ratio, aiming for a 200% return by expiration in late January.


November 15, 2024


Evolent Health Forecast

EVH        Evolent Health

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EWZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWZ  iShares MSCI Brazil (0.77)


WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (0.75)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EVH


TRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRV  Travelers Companies (0.0)


FLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLNG  Flex Lng (-0.0)


XPO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XPO  XPO Logistics (0.01)


LRCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRCX  Lam Research (-0.01)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EVH


OUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUST  Ouster (-0.7)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.74)


BJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BJ  BJ's Wholesale Club (-0.75)


GOOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOG  Alphabet (-0.81)


GOOGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOGL  Alphabet (-0.82)







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