Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A potential bullish recovery may occur as geopolitical tensions ease, driving North Korean relations and technology sectors, particularly semiconductors, with support for EWY's underlying assets.

Bearish Case: Continued geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding North Korea and economic instability stemming from global pressures, could amplify downside risk, causing further declines in EWY's price.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1. Stabilization and gradual recovery (40% probability): Improved North Korean relations.
• 2. Continued downside pressure (35% probability): Geopolitical tensions and market volatility persist.
• 3. Short-term fluctuations (25% probability): Mixed economic indicators lead to uncertainty.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread by selling a $54 Call and buying a $58 Call expiring in 29 days. This targets recent volatility trends, providing a potential return of 15% (53% annualized) with 83% odds of profit—capitalizing on persistently high implied volatility.

December 20, 2024