EXAS Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: EXAS's Cologuard product improvements, new partnerships, and a potential Medicare price hike for Cologuard Plus could drive revenue growth and stock price appreciation.


Bearish Case: Persisting financial struggles, potential legal issues with Geneoscopy, and intense competition in the colorectal cancer screening space may depress EXAS's stock further.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 55%: Increased revenue from Cologuard Plus and partnerships boost stock.

2. 30%: Financial struggles and legal issues suppress stock.

3. 15%: Market volatility and regulatory challenges cause fluctuations.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish short volatility strategy with a put credit spread by selling the $50 strike put and buying the $45 strike put expiring in ~28 days. This strategy leverages the 64% implied volatility and the expected stabilization in price, offering a high probability of profit (68%) with positive edge.


July 23, 2024


Exact Sciences Forecast

EXAS      Exact Sciences











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SEDG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEDG  Solaredge (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EXAS



ARKK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKK  ARK Innovation (-0.0)


HOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HOG  Harley-Davidson (0.01)


FCF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCF  First Commonwealth Financial (0.01)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.01)


STNE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNE  StoneCo (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EXAS



FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (-0.8)


SFM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SFM  Sprouts Farmers Market (-0.8)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.82)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (-0.83)


ANF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANF  Abercrombie & Fitch (-0.83)





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