FEZ Forecast


Bullish Case: Impending positive European economic data coupled with ECB stimulus may drive FEZ prices higher. Low historical correlation with recent high volatility suggests potential upward momentum.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility and geopolitical uncertainties could trigger sell-offs and volatility spikes. Continued economic slowdowns or regulatory pressures may further impair market sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of 5% gain due to favorable earnings reports from key EU firms.

2. 20% chance of 10% drop driven by economic slowdown fears.

3. 40% chance of flat performance with minor fluctuations as uncertainty persists.

4. 10% chance of extreme volatility in reaction to any geopolitical event.


Trading Oracle: Given the current backwardation, consider initiating a short-term credit spread by selling August 16, 2024, 50.50 P at 30.5% IV. This aligns with bearish sentiment and enables modest risk management with low capital outlay. Look for a strike price at or below $50 for potential profit.


July 25, 2024


SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 Forecast

FEZ      SPDR EURO Stoxx 50











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FEZ



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.61)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FEZ



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.61)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FEZ



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.61)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)





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