FF Forecast


Bullish Case: FutureFuel's recent institutional interest and consistent dividends suggest potential for upside despite past poor performance. The relatively high implied volatility for near-term options indicates increased trader interest, which could propel price higher.


Bearish Case: The flat term structure and high implied volatility signal FF's higher near-term uncertainty. Historical price data suggests a higher probability of negative returns, supported by a history of mean-reverting bearish trends.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued legal issues impacting stock (-30%, 40%).

2. Rise in share price from buyback announcements (+20%, 30%).

3. Flat due to market apathy (0%, 30%).


Trading Oracle: Given the high near-term volatility and recent bearish trends, deploy short-term credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility). Focus on selling premium at higher IV points, targeting September 2024 expirations. This strategy captures alpha from volatility crush post-legal outcomes.


July 20, 2024


Futurefuel Forecast

FF      Futurefuel











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HL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HL  Hecla Mining (0.0)


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CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (-0.0)


MRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRO  Marathon Oil (-0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FF



URA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URA  Global X Uranium (-0.79)


URNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URNM  North Shore Global Uranium Mining (-0.8)


TMUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMUS  T-Mobile US (-0.81)


ALKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALKT  Alkami Technology (-0.83)


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (-0.83)





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