FGD Forecast


Bullish Case: FGD showcases a consistent historical performance with high dividend yields. With a diversified portfolio, its fundamental strategies enhance its long-term stability, making it an attractive investment even amid market volatility.


Bearish Case: FGD has a negative performance trajectory recently with a 3% drop in the past five years. Implied volatilities are notably high for strike prices often suggesting potential price declines.


Potential Outcomes: Greenlight of new stimulus policies could boost FGD by 30% (40%). Continued market instability might drop prices by another 10% (30%). Stable dividends offer steady returns (30%).


Trading Oracle: Adopt a Helium Short Volatility approach with a 90-day horizon. Sell covered calls at $24 with high premiums due to elevated implied volatility. This strategy maximizes profits by leveraging existing stability and high option premiums.


June 30, 2024


First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index Forecast

FGD      First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FGD



DVY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVY  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Select Dividend (0.97)


VXUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXUS  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total International Stock (0.97)


SPYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYD  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend (0.96)


EFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EFA  BTC iShares MSCI EAFE (0.95)


EWG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWG  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Germany (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FGD



AI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AI  C3.ai (-0.0)


RCM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCM  R1 RCM (0.0)


KLIC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KLIC  Kulicke & Soffa Industries (0.0)


CWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWEB  Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bu (-0.0)


SNOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNOW  Snowflake (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FGD



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)


TWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWM  ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 (-0.92)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.92)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.93)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.93)





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