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FHN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: FHN could rebound due to strong upcoming earnings, supported by the higher-than-market implied volatility forecast, which indicates increasing investor confidence. Ongoing share buybacks further enhance potential upside.



Bearish Case: Continued instability in regional banking could suppress FHN's price growth, compounded by overvalued implied volatility and persistent bearish market sentiment surrounding the failed TD merger.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong earnings lead to a 30% rebound (40% chance).

2. Continued bear market in regional banking suppresses price (35% chance).

3. Successful execution of strategic buys bolsters price by 20% (25% chance).



Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish strategy by buying a $19 call (delta: 0.3) and selling a $20 call (delta: 0.15) expiring in ~109 days. This captures potential upside with limited risk, leveraging high implied volatility for a favorable risk/reward. Aim for an unlimited return with proper exit strategies.


November 08, 2024


First Horizon Forecast

FHN        First Horizon

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PRU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRU  Prudential Financial (0.92)


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (0.92)


JXN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JXN  Jackson Financial (0.91)


BAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAC  Bank Of America (0.91)


GS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GS  Goldman Sachs Group (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FHN


GXO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GXO  GXO Logistics (-0.0)


GLBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLBE  Global E Online (-0.0)


AMKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMKR  AMKOR Technology (0.0)


MP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MP  MP Materials (-0.0)


OKTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OKTA  Okta (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FHN


SEDG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEDG  Solaredge (-0.81)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.82)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.84)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.86)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.86)







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