FHN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong fundamentals and recovering net interest income support a bullish outlook for FHN. Positive momentum evidenced by recent share price stability and Helium's high bullish risk rating.


Bearish Case: Persisting uncertainties in regional banking, as reflected by high implied volatilities, could suppress price growth. Potentially negative macroeconomic trends and mean-reverting price action warn of limited upside.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Regional banking stability improves, FHN appreciates (40%)

2. Economic downturn affects banking sector, FHN declines (35%)

3. FHN pursues new merger, stock fluctuates (25%).


Trading Oracle: Trade Helium Long Volatility via debit spreads. Buy $18 strike calls expiring in ~121 days; sell $19 strike calls. Time outlook: 120 days. High implied volatility and historical mean reversion signal profitable trade with minimal downside risk using this spread strategy.


July 19, 2024


First Horizon Forecast

FHN      First Horizon











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FHN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FHN



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.69)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FHN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.69)





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