FOA Forecast


Bullish Case: FOA's strategic moves, including a reverse stock split and HMBS 2.0, could stabilize and potentially enhance share prices, fostering stronger investor interest and improved market perceptions.


Bearish Case: Continued financial struggles, potential for delisting from NYSE, and past layoffs undermine investor confidence, indicating that FOA may face further declines and limited growth prospects.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful HMBS 2.0 implementation - 30%.

2. Further significant layoffs leading to operational challenges - 25%.

3. Improved profitability due to market share gains - 20%.

4. Risk of delisting from NYSE - 15%.

5. Unexpected market disruptions negatively impacting performance - 10%.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread using the FOA 08/16/2024 5.00 C options due to high implied volatility and recovery potential around upcoming announcements. Maximize potential gains by targeting short-term volatility swings; risk managed via spreads for optimal reward-to-risk ratio.


July 25, 2024


Finance of America Companies Forecast

FOA      Finance of America Companies











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FOA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.88)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.42)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FOA



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.42)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.78)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.78)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FOA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.88)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.42)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.78)





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