FPA Forecast


Bullish Case: FPA's recent stability at $28.68 and modest positive returns over multiple periods, coupled with potential upside from economic recovery in the Asia-Pacific region, present an attractive setup for bullish investors.


Bearish Case: FPA's weak long-term performance, regional geopolitical risks, and current flat price action suggest limited upside potential and heightened downside risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic recovery in Asia-Pacific region (30%).

2. Increased regional stability (20%).

3. Adverse geopolitical events (25%).

4. Continued flat performance (25%). [Predictions calibrated based on recent data and historical likelihoods from return surface graph]


Trading Oracle: Based on limited volatility and mixed forecast, initiate Helium Short Volatility credit spreads with a neutral to bearish outlook over a 1-2 year horizon. This strategy offers balanced risk-reward and high probability of profit given the prevailing flat trend.


July 18, 2024


First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Asia Pacific ex-Japan AlphaDEX Forecast

FPA      First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Asia Pacific ex-Japan AlphaDEX











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