FSV Forecast


Bullish Case: FirstService's positive revenue forecasts and increasing institutional investments indicate robust future growth. The marginal premium in market-implied volatility reflects market confidence.


Bearish Case: Elevated implied volatility and recent subdued price returns align with economic downturn risks. Bearish risk outstripping bullish, as seen in historical volatility patterns, suggests caution ahead.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Modest growth: 30% - economic improvement.

2. Price stagnation: 40% - persisting sector weakness.

3. Price decline: 30% - adverse economic shocks. Historical data and implied volatility suggest flat or mixed performance.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a short call credit spread using strikes around $170 for September. Elevated implied volatility and likely price stagnation maximize profit potential with low risk. Favor short volatility strategies as market premium suggests inflated downside protection.


July 19, 2024


FirstService Forecast

FSV      FirstService











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