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FWRG Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: FWRG shows a strong recent uptrend, potentially driven by institutional support and improving market sentiment. Historical price returns indicate a likelihood of continued upward movement.



Bearish Case: Concerns over insider selling and current high put option volumes suggest potential near-term weakness. Additionally, increased SPY volatility could impact broader market sentiment.



Potential Outcomes: Price stabilization around $22 is likely (70%), moderate decline to $18 (20%) due to insider selling, or a rally to $25 (10%) if institutional buying intensifies.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit call spread, buying $22.50 call and selling $25.00 call, targeting late March expiration. Leverage recent price gains and manage risks with controlled upside exposure. Potential favorable implied volatility as indicated by FWRG option surfaces.


February 18, 2025


First Watch Restaurant Forecast

FWRG        First Watch Restaurant

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FWRG


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.87)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (0.86)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (0.86)


PATH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PATH  UiPath (0.83)


CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FWRG


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.0)


AMAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMAT  Applied Materials (-0.0)


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCD  McDonald's (-0.0)


SBUX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBUX  Starbucks (-0.01)


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FWRG


ABUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABUS  Arbutus Biopharma (-0.78)


ZETA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZETA  Zeta Global Holdings Corp (-0.79)


IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.81)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (-0.82)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.86)







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