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GFI Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: GFI's potential production boost from new projects and historically strong performance increase the attractiveness for long-term investors.



Bearish Case: Operational challenges, coupled with high implied volatility and increased put volume, suggest potential downside risks.



Potential Outcomes: Successful project execution (60%), operational setbacks (25%), gold price surge (15%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread using short-term options due to high implied volatility and recent put volume spike. Sell $15 puts, buy $14 puts expiring in 30 days. Target declining prices and volatility normalization.


January 31, 2025


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