Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: GILD's pipeline advances, particularly with lenacapavir in HIV prevention, show significant promise for revenue growth. Recent bullish sentiment in the options market reflects confidence in GILD's strategic initiatives and upcoming approvals.

Bearish Case: Market uncertainty is high due to potential regulatory setbacks and adverse trial results. The withdrawal of US accelerated approval for Trodelvy may dampen investor confidence, and ongoing legal challenges could strain GILD's financials.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Successful FDA approval for lenacapavir (60%);

2) Regulatory delays on key drugs (30%);

3) Settlement on legal issues leads to stock recovery (10%);

4) Major pipeline failures (20%);

5) Competitive pressures erode market position (15%).

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish long volatility strategy: buy GILD $100 calls and sell $105 calls, expiring in 42 days. This capitalizes on potential volatility spikes from drug approvals and captures upside while hedge risks. Target high return/risk and a 70% probability of profit based on current market dynamics.

November 12, 2024