Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: GM's Q3 2024 results exceeded expectations, driven by a 60% increase in EV sales and strong recovery in truck and SUV markets, reflecting solid operational efficiency and consumer demand, particularly in China.

Bearish Case: Potential labor disruptions from UAW negotiations and unresolved market sentiment regarding EV profitability could impair GM's operational capacity and lead to stock price declines despite recovering sales.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 50% chance of stable growth in EV sales driving stock upward (target price $65).

2) 30% chance of labor disputes causing production delays (downside to $50).

3) 20% chance of market volatility leading to short-term dips (testing $54).

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread by buying GM $58 calls and selling $60 calls expiring January 2025. This strategy anticipates a positive price movement while managing risk effectively. With implied volatility expected to rise, capturing potential upside is well-aligned with current market sentiment.

November 12, 2024