Bullish Case: Strong international growth and increasing customer spending could boost revenues.


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Bearish Case: Falling rig counts and drilling activity in U.S. shale pose downside risks.


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Takeaway: Halliburton exhibits encouraging growth prospects internationally and with customer spending, but faces headwinds from decreasing U.S. shale activity. Legal disputes add uncertainty. Outcomes will depend on oil prices, global economic conditions, and execution of technology integration. The bullish case is based on Halliburton's predicted ~10% customer spending growth in North America and high-teens international growth [Helium]. However, downside risks stem from falling rig counts and drilling activity in U.S. shale [seekingalpha.com]. The recent patent lawsuit loss highlights legal disputes as a potential risk [seekingalpha.com]. However, international expansion and technology integration efforts [CNBC][seekingalpha.com] present opportunities. Continued monitoring of shale activity levels [seekingalpha.com], legal disputes [The Guardian], and execution of growth strategies will indicate Halliburton's overall trajectory.


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Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased customer spending in North America (~10%) and internationally (high-teens growth) materializing, boosting revenues (60% probability).

2. Continued drop in U.S. rig count and drilling activity weighing on financial performance (70% probability).

3. Potential legal disputes, like recent patent lawsuit loss, impacting financials and reputation (30% probability).


September 28, 2023



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